At 1:15 AM on August 5th, Rosenborg will host Tromsø in the 17th round of the 2024 Norwegian Premier League. Currently on the league table, Rosenborg stands in 11th with 18 points from 5 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses. Tromsø, with the same 18 points, sits in 10th with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses. The winner of this match could potentially jump ahead in the standings as the gap between these teams and those above them is tight, with Kristiansund also on 18 points, Strømsgodset with 19 points, and Lillestrøm with 20 points.
Rosenborg’s recent performance has been underwhelming. They drew 2-2 with Fredrikstad in their last game, registering only 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their past 5 league matches. More alarming than their poor results is the vulnerability of their defense, conceding a staggering 14 goals in the last 5 games, averaging 2.8 goals conceded per game. With a season total of 29 goals conceded, they are close to the 30 goal mark, and averaging almost 1.9 goals conceded per game over the season. It’s evident that Rosenborg’s defense has crumbled in the past 5 rounds.
Tromsø drew a blank against Kristiansund in their last round, recording 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their past 5 league matches. Though their record mirrors Rosenborg’s, Tromsø’s defense has become a surprising bright spot. They’ve conceded only 4 goals in the last 5 games, averaging 0.8 goals conceded per game. Compared to their season average of 1.4 goals conceded per game, this is a significant improvement. Earlier in the season, Tromsø experienced several heavy defeats, conceding 3 or 4 goals in games. This trend has been curbed in the last 5 matches. However, this defensive stability has come at the cost of their attacking efficiency. They have only scored 2 goals in the last 5 games, averaging 0.4 goals per game. Their season average of 1.1 goals per game paints a stark picture of their decline in attacking potency.
While their overall performance may be lackluster, Rosenborg have a commendable home record. They have won 4, drawn 1, and lost 2 in their 7 home matches, a record that could see them ranked in the top 5 based on home games alone. Tromsø’s record away from home is more modest, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in 7 matches. It’s not a disastrous record, but it’s not without its shortcomings.
These two teams have a long history in the Norwegian Premier League, having faced each other 71 times. Rosenborg hold a significant advantage with 35 wins, 18 draws, and 18 losses. There was a period when Rosenborg completely dominated Tromsø, with 5-0 and 6-1 victories being commonplace. However, Rosenborg’s performance has waned in recent years, and Tromsø has gradually narrowed the gap. In their first encounter this season, Rosenborg suffered a 3-2 defeat away to Tromsø. In the last 5 meetings, Rosenborg have won 2 and lost 3, relinquishing their previously established dominance.
The injury situation remains a concern for Rosenborg. Henriksen, Pereira, Nelson, and Augustinsen are all likely to be sidelined again. Their top scorer, Sæter, is regaining his form, having scored after coming off the bench in the last game and netting 3 goals in the past 5 matches. However, other players in the squad are struggling to find the back of the net, putting further strain on Rosenborg’s already struggling defense. In contrast, Tromsø’s injury situation is less severe. However, the number of players who could bring about tactical changes in the lineup is limited. Winter, who came off the bench in the last game, played well and might be included in the starting lineup. Bary, who was benched last round, is also a contender for a starting role.
Looking at their season performances, both teams are evenly matched. Rosenborg’s recent defensive struggles could present an opportunity for opposing teams to exploit their weakness. While Tromsø have tightened their defense, they have sacrificed offensive output in the process, leading to a stagnant overall performance.
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