On June 26th at 00:00, France will face Poland in Dortmund for the final group stage match of Group D at the UEFA Euro 2024. The latest FIFA rankings show France at number 2 in the world and number 1 in Europe, while their opponents, Poland, are ranked 26th in the world and 14th in Europe.
Currently, the standings for the group are as follows: France have 4 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 draw), but are currently in second place due to having one fewer goal than the Netherlands. The Netherlands also have 4 points from 1 win and 1 draw and are currently leading the group. Austria have 3 points from 1 win and 1 loss, currently sitting in third place. Poland have lost both of their matches and have already been eliminated from the tournament. In their final match, France aims to secure their spot in the knockout stage while also securing the top spot in the group. Poland, having already ended their Euro 2024 journey, may opt for significant squad rotation, focusing on developing potential for the future.
After narrowly defeating Austria in their opening match, France struggled in their second match against the Netherlands. Although both teams played out a goalless draw, France relied heavily on luck. A goal by Simons was ruled out by VAR, allowing France to escape with a point. Following the match, French media analyzed the game, pointing out that Deschamps faced a similar dilemma as at Paris Saint-Germain: who steps up in Mbappe’s absence? Clearly, Griezmann isn’t yet ready to fill that role, and his luck hasn’t been on his side either. While the Netherlands repeatedly attacked from both flanks, France failed to find a solution to neutralize their threat.
Poland lost their opening match 1-2 to the Netherlands and their second match 1-3 to Austria. In recent major tournaments, Poland seems to have maintained a consistent pattern: they perform exceptionally well in the qualifiers but struggle in the main tournament despite their efforts. While they possess talented players capable of making a difference, they tend to lose their way at critical moments. Of course, Lewandowski’s injury was a setback for Poland, but also a disappointment for the 35-year-old striker himself. If it wasn’t for Szczęsny’s brilliant performance, they would have conceded more than three goals, potentially losing hope for the future. Perhaps they envisioned challenging Austria for the third-place spot before the tournament began. Now, they are packing their bags and planning their vacations.
Historically, these two teams have met 17 times, with France holding a commanding advantage, boasting 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. In the last 8 encounters, France have remained undefeated, securing 4 wins and 4 draws. Their most recent meeting was in the Round of 16 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, where France triumphed 3-1. To a certain extent, France’s style of play effectively counters Poland’s. Poland’s defenders often struggle with turning quickly, and France has a wealth of fast forwards on either wing. Faced with the pace of Mbappe and others, Poland’s defense crumbles within a few exchanges.
Mbappe’s status remains a major concern for French fans. According to Deschamps and Tchouaméni, Mbappe has adapted to wearing a protective mask and scored goals in pre-match practice sessions. However, media outlets remain unconvinced that he will start this match, suggesting a substitute appearance is more likely. Ahead of the match, French publication L’Équipe revealed that Deschamps could opt to bench Dembélé in favor of the young Paris Saint-Germain star, Barcola. Camavinga’s injury is expected to keep him out of the final group match. As France is aiming to top the group, possibly even ahead of the Netherlands or Austria, Deschamps is likely to avoid major changes to the starting lineup. They need a win against Poland to secure a favorable opponent in the knockout stage.
Poland’s goalkeeper, Szczęsny, expressed before the tournament that he might retire from international football after the Euro 2024. He believes that Poland no longer has to worry about the goalkeeper position, as Skorupski and Bułka have emerged as capable replacements. Additionally, head coach Michniewicz confirmed that Szczęsny will not start the final match, providing an opportunity for other goalkeepers to showcase their abilities. Polish media hopes that despite their elimination, Poland can leave a positive impression on the tournament. They are determined to avoid a humiliating conclusion, finishing the tournament without a single point. Even a goalless draw would provide a spark for the future of Polish football and prevent them from leaving a lasting negative mark in the history of the Euro.
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