On June 25th, Croatia was held to a 1-1 draw by Italy in the final round of Group B of the European Championship. With a record of 2 draws and 1 loss in 3 games, Croatia has only a theoretical chance to qualify.
For Croatia to qualify, they need to be among the four best third-placed teams. Currently, the group stage in Group A has finished, and Hungary, who finished third with 1 win and 2 losses, has already surpassed Croatia with 3 points. In Group D, Austria, who are currently third with 3 points, have also surpassed Croatia. All four teams in Group E have 3 points, and the third-placed team will definitely surpass Croatia.
In Group C, Denmark (2 draws), Slovenia (2 draws) and Serbia (1 draw, 1 loss) need England to defeat Slovenia by at least 3 goals, and Serbia to defeat Denmark by at least 3 goals. Or, England needs to defeat Slovenia by at least 3 goals, and Denmark needs to defeat Serbia. Only if one of these possibilities occurs can Croatia surpass the third-placed team in Group C.
In Group F, the Czech Republic (1 point) and Georgia (1 point) are Croatia’s rivals. Portugal needs to defeat Georgia, and Turkey needs to defeat the Czech Republic, to ensure that Croatia surpasses these two teams.
Croatia’s qualification prospects are extremely difficult, and they need to simultaneously surpass the third-placed teams in both Group C and Group F to qualify. This requires half of Europe to help them. The last time they were saved like this was in the 2016 Asian qualifiers, where the Chinese national team unbelievably advanced despite the need for strict conditions to occur simultaneously.
Croatia’s qualification conditions (all four conditions must be met):
1. Georgia must lose.
2. The Czech Republic must lose.
3. Serbia must lose or Denmark must lose by 3 goals.
4. Slovenia must lose by 3 goals or more.
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