At 3:00 AM on June 25th, Croatia and Italy will clash in a do-or-die Group B match of the European Championship at the Leipzig Stadium. According to the latest FIFA rankings, Croatia is ranked 9th in the world and 7th in Europe. Italy is ranked 10th in the world and 8th in Europe. Both teams are top-tier teams in European and world football, and their confrontation never lacks highlights.
Currently, the situation in Group B is that Spain has won both of its matches with 6 points and has already secured its place in the knockout stage. If they draw in the last round, they will be assured of finishing first in the group and advancing to the Round of 16. Italy, with one win and one loss, has 3 points and is currently in second place. They still have control over their own destiny. Albania, widely regarded as the weakest team in the group, has 1 point after 2 matches with one draw and one loss. However, their performance has not been that of a team ranked 66th in the world. They still have a chance to qualify in the last round, although it would require a lot of miracles. Croatia’s performance, however, has been extremely disappointing. With one draw and one loss for 1 point, they are currently at the bottom of the group due to their inferior goal difference. In the last round, they have to beat Italy to have a chance to snatch a ticket to the Round of 16. A draw would require a lot of lucky coincidences.
In the second round of the group stage, Croatia was held to a 2-2 draw by Albania. After a disastrous 0-3 loss to Spain in the first round, the entire Croatian team was under immense psychological pressure. When everyone expected them to bounce back with a comfortable victory over Albania, the “Checkerboard Army” truly put themselves in a precarious position. Despite conceding first, Croatia quickly found their rhythm after a brief period of chaos. Jasurali’s own goal and Kramaric’s strike gave Croatia their first lead. Then, the unyielding Albanian team launched a wave-like counterattack. In the 5th minute of stoppage time, Jasurali scored the equalizer. After the game, a disappointed Modrić stared blankly at the grass and the scoreboard, realizing that something was truly wrong with this Croatia team.
In Italy’s second group stage match, despite only losing 0-1 to Spain, the narrow scoreline couldn’t hide the “Azzurri’s” complete and utter misery throughout the game. Williams and Yamal were like unstoppable forces on the flanks, tearing through Italy’s usually solid defensive line as if it were made of crumbling sand. They were completely dominated throughout the game, and if it hadn’t been for Donnarumma’s heroic performance, the scoreline would have been far worse. It wasn’t a clash between two evenly matched teams, but a complete and utter subjugation. It’s fair to say that in the face of Spain’s “youth storm,” Italy lacked both the matching pace and the strength to compete. The defeat felt like a pre-written script from the start of the game.
According to statistics, the two teams have met 9 times in history, with Croatia holding a commanding lead with 3 wins, 5 draws, and 1 loss. The two teams were in the same group at Euro 2012, eventually drawing 1-1. Interestingly, the two teams have also been drawn in the same group multiple times in the European Championship qualifiers, but Italy has never won. The only time Italy defeated Croatia in their history dates back to 1942, when they thrashed Croatia 4-0.
After being held to a last-minute draw by Albania in their last game, Croatia is on the brink of elimination. This game has exposed a multitude of issues for Croatia: an aging lineup, a lack of rhythm variation in their attacks, and a sloppy defensive line that struggles to mark players, among other problems. Modrić, at 38, Perisic at 35, Kramaric at 33, and Kovacic and Brozovic, both over 30, can’t launch attacks with the same speed as Spain or vary their tempo like Germany. They have only one rhythm, and even Albania has repeatedly broken through their defense. The struggles of Gvardiol on defense are a reflection of the dire situation facing Croatia.
According to multiple Italian media sources, Spalletti is expected to make 4-5 changes to his starting lineup ahead of this do-or-die encounter. Jorginho, Di Lorenzo, Scamacca, Chiesa, and others are all likely to be rotated. Pellegrini might be back in the starting XI, and Darmian could feature on the right flank. In attack, he may opt for the more dynamic Retegui. Spalletti’s clear intention is to inject pace into Italy, hoping to overwhelm Croatia with speed and dynamism. Furthermore, Italian media has confirmed that Dimarco will miss the game due to injury.
Italy can secure qualification with a draw, seemingly an easy proposition, yet countless teams have fallen victim to this expectation. Croatia needs a victory to control their own destiny. Although historical data heavily favors Croatia, performance on the pitch is what truly matters. Will this be Modrić’s last dance at this European Championship?
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