At 3:00 AM on June 30th, in the Round of 16 of the European Cup, Germany will face Denmark at the Westfalenstadion in Dortmund for a spot in the quarter-finals. In the latest FIFA rankings, Germany is ranked 16th in the world and 9th in Europe; Denmark is ranked 21st in the world and 11th in Europe.
Germany won two and drew one in their three group matches in Group A, accumulating 7 points and successfully advancing to the knockout stage as group leaders. Scoring 8 goals and conceding only 2, one of which was an own goal. The team demonstrated their extremely intimidating attacking firepower and rock-solid defensive quality. Beyond the data, there is the fact that the German team has completely transformed after their disappointing exit from the World Cup in Qatar and the many disappointing performances in the warm-up matches before the European Cup. Nagelsmann has re-polished the tracks of the German chariot, equipped it with a brand new engine, and found their direction. Denmark drew all three of their three group matches in Group C, accumulating 3 points and advancing to the Round of 16 as group runners-up. Scoring 2 goals and conceding 2. Before the tournament, no one doubted Denmark’s ability to advance from the group stage, it was just that their way of advancing was somewhat unexpected. The draw against Slovenia was a pity for Denmark. The draw against England drew unanimous praise from top to bottom. The draw against Serbia even drew criticism from the Danish media.
Before the match, German center-back Schlotterbeck said in an interview with UEFA that the German team has been focusing on set piece tactics in recent days to prepare for the match against Denmark. He also admitted that Denmark is a strong team and it will be difficult for Germany to achieve a large victory like they did in the group stage. Moreover, although Denmark’s attack was not outstanding in the group stage, they only conceded 2 goals in defense. This team’s defense is both tall and tough. Obviously, the German team also believes that breaking through the opponent’s defense with positional warfare will be a difficult challenge. Set pieces could be the key to changing the game.
Denmark was held to a 0-0 draw by Serbia in the last round, leading to increasing pessimism within the country. But in the team’s view, advancing to the knockout stage is the top priority, and things like the performance and goals scored are somewhat secondary. Although they have gained three draws, Denmark’s control over the pace of the game and the team’s coordinated offensive and defensive transitions are very mature. Moreover, the majority of these players were present at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Even a considerable number of them participated in the 2020 European Cup. Their experience in major tournaments is in no way inferior to Germany’s.
According to statistics, the two teams have met 28 times in history. Germany has a significant lead with 15 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses. They have met three times in the European Cup, the most recent being in the 2012 European Cup group stage, where Germany defeated Denmark 2-1. But the most classic match was the 1992 European Cup final, where Denmark defeated Germany 2-0, creating the most beautiful “Danish fairy tale” in the history of the European Cup. Although they often play friendly matches against each other, the nature of these matches and the level of investment from both teams may not be a good reference.
In this match, Thauvin, having received a yellow card in the match against Switzerland, will be automatically suspended for one match due to accumulation of two yellow cards. However, Nagelsmann still has Schlotterbeck as an option in this position. Another center-back, Rudiger, missed the team’s Thursday training session due to injury, and it is still unknown if he will be able to recover in time. In addition, Füllkrug, who has already scored twice in the group stage, has proven that he deserves a starting position. According to Bild, he is very likely to replace Havertz as the starting striker for Germany in this match, while Havertz may be moved to other positions or be on the bench.
Denmark loves positional warfare, as evidenced by their three group matches. Although their scoring ability is somewhat lacking, Denmark always finds a way to transition the ball from the back to the front and create threats. Eriksen’s pivotal role is key to this, but according to the Associated Press, he missed the team’s Thursday training session, although the media believes this minor incident will not affect his starting position. It’s just that the Höjlund issue seems to be plaguing the Nordic powerhouse. Although he has good physicality and ball protection skills, Höjlund seems to be unable to generate enough chemistry with the team. On the other hand, Wind, who plays for Wolfsburg, has been thriving on the other side.
Before the match, former Brøndby and current Fürth manager Zorniger believes that Denmark lacks speed and that Germany could disrupt Denmark’s deployment through their two wings with rapid advances. Musiala and Wirtz both have the ability to change the pace of the game. However, Germany is not invincible, their first half performance against Switzerland gave all those who hope to defeat them confidence. Denmark coach Hjulmand said that Denmark has nothing to lose in this match and he hopes his players will enjoy the match.
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